Baltic Commercial Real Estate Market Report: Q3 2026

Baltic commercial real estate investment reached approximately €345 million in Q3 2026, with retail accounting for more than half of quarterly transaction volumes. Office vacancy declined across Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn, while industrial and logistics completions added approximately 122,000 sqm of new space.

CPB’s Q3 2026 Baltic Market Figures report examines commercial property markets across Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Covering July–September 2026, it provides data and analysis on real estate investment, office leasing, retail development, and industrial and logistics property.

Baltic real estate investment: retail leads transaction volumes

Commercial property investment across the Baltics totalled approximately €345 million in Q3 2026. The 12-month rolling investment volume reached approximately €1.12 billion.

Latvia attracted 47% of quarterly investment, followed by Lithuania with 32% and Estonia with 21%. Major retail acquisitions, including Domina Shopping and Capital Mill’s acquisition of Hili Properties’ three neighbourhood shopping centres, supported Latvia’s leading position.

Hotels became the second-largest investment sector, accounting for more than 15% of quarterly volumes, primarily through the Grand Hotel Vilnius and SPA Vilnius Druskininkai transactions. Office investment slowed, while Estonia attracted almost 70% of the region’s industrial investment.

Prime yields remained broadly stable. Investor demand continued to focus on well-let properties with predictable income, while financing costs limited pricing flexibility. Higher transaction volumes therefore did not yet indicate a general recovery in capital values.

Office markets in Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn

Office vacancy declined in all three Baltic capitals during Q3 2026, although leasing activity differed between markets. Rents remained broadly stable as occupiers prioritised building quality, efficient layouts and operating costs.

In Vilnius, quarterly take-up fell to its lowest level since the pandemic. Occupiers continued to explore relocation options, but longer decision-making processes delayed the conversion of negotiations into signed leases. Approximately 11,000 sqm of new office space was completed, while around 83,000 sqm remained under construction.

Riga recorded lower take-up than in Q2, with A-class offices accounting for approximately 65% of quarterly leasing. Overall vacancy declined to 11.1%, supported by limited new deliveries and continued absorption.

Tallinn’s office vacancy fell from 9.8% in Q2 to 8.1% in Q3. No new office space was completed during the quarter. Demand remained selective, with modern, efficient buildings and smaller, ready-to-occupy premises continuing to attract occupiers.

Baltic retail property: international brands and changing formats

Modern retail stock across the Baltics stood at approximately 4.5 million sqm, with around 35,900 sqm completed in Q3 2026. Grocery openings and redevelopment shaped supply, while international fashion and beauty brands broadened the tenant mix in leading shopping centres.

ARKET completed its presence across all three Baltic capitals with its first Lithuanian store at Akropolis in Vilnius. Gap entered Estonia with a standalone store at Ülemiste Centre, while KIKO Milano opened its first stores and Zara Home added another location at Panorama in Vilnius.

Consumer demand supported both value retail and quality products. Shopping centres increasingly combined stores, services and leisure, reflecting the importance of spending per visit alongside footfall.

Industrial and logistics property: growing supply and stable prime rents

Approximately 122,000 sqm of industrial and logistics space was completed across the Baltics in Q3 2026. Major additions included the second phase of SIRIN Park Airport in Riga and new space at SIRIN Park Liepkalnis in Vilnius.

Around 288,000 sqm remained under construction. Latvia led the development pipeline with approximately 133,000 sqm, followed by Estonia with 82,000 sqm and Lithuania with 73,000 sqm.

Industrial vacancy ranged from approximately 3% to 6.5%, while prime rents remained broadly stable at €4.5–6.2/sqm/month. Parcel logistics and distribution network modernisation remained notable sources of occupier demand.

Stock-office development also continued, particularly in Estonia. Across the Baltics, more than 35,000 sqm of stock-office space was completed, with approximately 133,000 sqm under construction. Prime stock-office rents remained at €9–12/sqm/month.

Download the Q3 2026 Baltic Market Figures report

Explore CPB’s full report for further analysis of Baltic commercial real estate investment, office vacancy and rents, retail development, and industrial and logistics supply.

For market research or advice on a specific property decision in Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia, contact CPB’s Research & Consulting team.